2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Sassmaster15)
I started this season prior to when agencies started releasing their forecasts for this upcoming season, and when I expected it to be much more active in nature (similar to the 2004season). Due to the fact that most agancies are calling for a slightly above-average season, I'm considering the fact that my predictions listed here are an overestimate. I will start a Predictions, Version 2 article that correlates more with the given forecasts upon completion of this article. Nevertheless, I still believe there is a small chance of a season like this happening in 2016.' The '2016 Atlantic hurricane season' was an active season that resulted in the formation of nineteen named storms, ten hurricanes, and six major hurricanes; a near record number of named storms, only surpassed by the 1933 and 2005seasons, and tying with the 1887, 1995, 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons for the highest amount of named storms in a single season and for being the third most active Atlantic season overall. Due to the transition from a Strong El Niño to a Moderate La Niña, activity was at its highest since 2012, though the storms of 2016 were more intense in nature. The season ran mainly year-round, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13 and the dissipation of Hurricane Tobias in late December, with the season officially starting June 1 and ending November 30, the dates that typically delimit tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic. However, as the 2016 season demonstrated, tropical cyclone formation is possible any time of the year. The season featured the highest number of hurricanes since the 2012 season, with 2016 totalling ten hurricanes, six of which became major hurricanes, an amount not seen since 2005. The season started exceptionally early, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13, having become the first January hurricane since Hurricane Alice of 1955. Another highlight of 2016 was that the first Category 5 hurricane was seen in the Atlantic basin since Felix of 2007, Hermine, which peaked at 175 MPH, 893 mbar. Hermine, after making three separate landfalls (two of which would occur in the same place), would eventually become the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, as well as the fourth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic, only to be surpassed by Category 5 Hurricane Karl weeks later. Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane to occur during the season, eventually peaking at 180 MPH, 891 mbar, becoming one of the most intense hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. Karl also made landfall in Nicaragua at peak intensity, resulting in massive devastation, becoming the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, having knocked Hermine out of her spot, as well as downgrading the storm to the fifth most intense hurricane in Atlantic history, after Karl became the third most intense. 2016 was also one of only two seasons to have two Category 5 hurricanes make landfall at Category 5 intensity, with 2007 being the only other known occurence of this. A large portion of the storms caused significant damage, with the first storm (Nicole) making landfall in the U.S. at major hurricane intensity since Wilma of 2005. In addition, several other major and non-major hurricanes all made landfall in places around the Atlantic at or near peak intensity, causing significant damage. In late December, the most intense post-season tropical cyclone developed; Hurricane Tobias, making landfall in Florida on December 25 (the celebration of Christmas) at Category 3 intensity, causing a high amount of power outages across the eastern United States. With more than half of the storms making landfall in different parts of the Atlantic whilst tropical, 2016 became the second costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record, only behind 2005. Only five storms; Hurricane Colin, Tropical Storm Danielle, Tropical Storm Gaston, Hurricane Paula, and Tropical Storm Shary did not have any major direct effects or impacts on land while tropical. 2016 also became the third hurricane season to feature two pre-season tropical cyclones (Bonnie & Alex), which became the first occurrence since 2012 and the third only known occurrence since 1951. '''Pre-Season Forecasts' Season Summary ImageSize = width:700 height:275 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:190 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/01/2016 till:31/01/2017 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2016 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-129_mph id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130-156_mph id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_157_mph Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:13/01/2016 till:15/01/2016 color:C1 text:Alex (C1) from:22/05/2016 till:26/05/2016 color:TS text:Bonnie (TS) from:11/06/2016 till:14/06/2016 color:C1 text:Colin (C1) from:13/06/2016 till:15/06/2016 color:TS text:Danielle (TS) from:18/06/2016 till:24/06/2016 color:C3 text:Earl (C3) from:29/06/2016 till:30/06/2016 color:TD text:Six (SD) from:11/07/2016 till:23/07/2016 color:C4 text:Fiona (C4) from:27/07/2016 till:30/07/2016 color:TS text:Gaston (TS) from:08/08/2016 till:19/08/2016 color:C5 text:Hermine (C5) from:12/08/2016 till:16/08/2016 color:C2 text:Ian (C2) from:15/08/2016 till:17/08/2016 color:TS text:Julia (TS) barset:break from:18/08/2016 till:31/08/2016 color:C5 text:Karl (C5) from:21/08/2016 till:25/08/2016 color:TS text:Lisa (TS) from:24/08/2016 till:26/08/2016 color:TD text:Fourteen (TD) from:04/09/2016 till:08/09/2016 color:TS text:Matthew (TS) from:10/09/2016 till:17/09/2016 color:C4 text:Nicole (C4) from:13/09/2016 till:16/09/2016 color:TS text:Otto (TS) from:24/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 color:C1 text:Paula (C1) from:06/10/2016 till:12/10/2016 color:TS text:Richard (SS) from:11/11/2016 till:17/11/2016 color:TS text:Shary (TS) from:18/12/2016 till:27/12/2016 color:C3 text:Tobias (C3) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/01/2016 till:01/02/2016 text:January from:01/02/2016 till:01/03/2016 text:February from:01/03/2016 till:01/04/2016 text:March from:01/04/2016 till:01/05/2016 text:April from:01/05/2016 till:01/06/2016 text:May from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2016 text:June from:01/07/2016 till:01/08/2016 text:July from:01/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 text:August from:01/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 text:September from:01/10/2016 till:01/11/2016 text:October from:01/11/2016 till:01/12/2016 text:November from:01/12/2016 till:01/01/2017 text:December TextData = pos:(400,30) text:"(From the" pos:(447,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" 'January & February' On January 13, an extratropical low pushing east across the Northern Atlantic developed into what became known as Hurricane Alex; the first named January storm and hurricane since Alice in 1955. The precursor to the system brought 60 MPH winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda, and then took on tropical characteristics on January 13, nearing the Azores. Alex, after causing minimal damages in the Azores, shifted WNW as it turned extratropical, dissipating two days later on January 15. February remained a quiet month, as no other systems or invests developed during the course of the month. May & June Tropical Storm Bonnie '''developed on May 22, 2016, after a very quiet period with no activity during the months of February, March, or April. Bonnie first developed near the Virgin Islands before making a complete loop in the Central Gulf, peaking at 50 MPH, prior to making landfall in Cedar Key, Florida, causing minimal damage with moderate winds and steady rain, eventually leading to moderate coastal flooding in the area, dissipating soon after, with the extratropical remnants of Bonnie making landfall in Nova Scotia, where further damage from the storm would occur. June proved to be an active month, as three named storms formed during the month, of which two reached hurricane status. '''Hurricane Colin was the first of the June storms, becoming a hurricane a day after formation on June 12, eventually peaking at 80 MPH, south of Bermuda, before shifting ENE, skirting the island with rain showers prior to becoming extratropical, with the storm's remnants making landfall in Ireland, having caused very minimal damage and resulting in no casualties. Tropical Storm Danielle was the fourth named storm of the season, developing near the Bahamas and traveling along the coast of the Eastern United States prior to turning extratropical near Iceland. Hurricane Earl was the first major hurricane of the season, developing Northeast of Turks & Caicos and making several loops in the western portion of the Northern Atlantic, skimming Bermuda but never making landfall there. Earl also produced indirect effects on the U.S., when large swells from the storm reportedly overturned several boats, resulting in the deaths of several people. Earl began to shift ENE near Bermuda as it continued to intensify into a major hurricane, the first of the season, going on to cause damage in the Azores, and in the UK and even Russia while extratropical. The end of June concluded with the dissipation of Subtropical Depression Six, which formed east of Turks & Caicos, later caused rain showers in Florida before entering the Gulf of Mexico and being absorbed by a frontal system only a day later. July & August July was slightly less active than the previous month, with only two named storms forming: Fiona, a classic Cape Verde major hurricane that peaked at Category 4 intensity, followed by Gaston, a short-lived tropical storm that formed near Puerto Rico and traveled just east of the Eastern United States. Hurricane Fiona '''developed from a Cape Verde tropical wave on July 11 and began to explosively intensify as it traveled west over the Central Atlantic. Fiona peaked at 145 MPH near Turks and Caicos, making a near-direct hit there, causing massive devastation, prior to turning North and hitting Bermuda as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. Fiona then turned extratropical, remaining at C1 strength and then made a direct landfall on Nova Scotia, dissipating entirely as it was absorbed by a frontal system over Prince Edward Island. '''Tropical Storm Gaston developed north of Puerto Rico from a band of storms along a frontal system when a core of low pressure began to develop. The system developed subtropical, but eventually became tropical as it passed just east of the United States, causing minor issues with rough surf and coastal flooding. Gaston eventually followed Fiona's track into Nova Scotia where it made landfall as an extratropical cyclone on July 30. August was one of the most active months of the season, ahead of June and September due to the amount of storms forming during the month. Hurricane Hermine was the first Category 5 hurricane to occur in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007. The storm developed from a well-defined tropical wave over the Central Atlantic, and continued to travel Northwest for the majority of its life, staying out to sea. However, Hermine peaked near Bermuda at 175 MPH, causing catastrophic damage with high winds and storm surge. Hermine then looped to the northeast of Bermuda and turned southwest, once again making an indirect hit on the island as a weak Category 5. Hermine then made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, causing widespread wind damage as far inland as Raleigh. Hermine then turned extratropical near New York and eventually pushed into Atlantic Canada, the storm's remnants dissipating over Newfoundland. Hermine was the third costliest hurricane to occur in the Atlantic, pushing Ike of 2008 down to number 4, sitting only behind Hurricanes Katrina of 2005 and Sandy of 2012, having resulted in over $53 billion in damages, the majority of it in Bermuda and North Carolina. Hermine was also directly responsible for over 62 deaths. In addition, Hermine is also responsible for a super outbreak of tornadoes that occurred on August 16-17, during a period in which 98 tornadoes formed from North Carolina to Quebec and caused major damage across the Carolinas and East Coast of the United States. While the majority of the tornadoes were weak, several twisters, including a powerful EF2 in North Carolina (the strongest of the outbreak), caused massive devastation. Hurricane Ian developed just days after Hermine on August 12, 435 miles southeast of the Leeward Islands from an initially poorly-defined tropical wave. However, the wave gradually intensified into a depression due to low wind shear, which normally inhibits tropical development over water. Ian eventually hit the Leeward Islands on August 13 as a tropical storm, though damage was minimal. Ian peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 MPH winds prior to making landfall in Quintana Roo as a weakening Category 1 hurricane, causing over $200 million in damages. Ian then turned extratropical before experiencing a short rebirth of strength as a tropical system over the Gulf before dissipating completely near Louisiana. Tropical Storm Julia '''developed north of Puerto Rico and then continued to travel WNW as a strong tropical storm, causing significant damage in Turks and Caicos, severely hampering re-building efforts from Hurricane Fiona the previous month. Julia also hit the lower Bahamas, where the storm caused significant flooding; the worst to occur there in Atlantic history. Julia remained tropical as it made landfall in Miami, Florida, causing minimal damage prior to regaining strength over the Gulf of Mexico as a subtropical system, causing considerable damage in the Florida panhandle. '''Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, and ultimately became the strongest of the season, and is one of the strongest hurricanes to occur in the Atlantic, behind Wilma of 2005 and Gilbert of 1988, with a record low pressure of 891 mbar. Karl is also tied with Rita of 2005 and Mitch of 1998 for having the most intense wind speeds, with maximum winds estimated to be 180 MPH. Karl developed from a late-stage tropical wave-extratropical low merger that defied initial forecasts, later attaining Category 1 intensity on the same day it formed, August 18; eventually strengthening to Category 5 over the Caribbean, and making landfall at that intensity in Nicaragua, causing massive devastation, knocking Hermine out of third place for being one of the most costliest hurricanes in the Atlantic, with damages estimated to be $59 billion. In addition, Karl's winds and heavy rainfall resulted in enormous mudslides that caused over 2,000 fatalities in Nicaragua and Honduras, making the storm the most significant in terms of deaths. Karl also had effects on Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Quintana Roo, the ABC Islands, and Venezuela while over the Caribbean, in addition to devastating sections of the Yucatán Peninsula and Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane, eventually tracking into New Mexico while still retaining tropical characteristics, making Karl the first ever Atlantic storm to last into New Mexico at hurricane strength while still retaining tropical characteristics. Tropical Storm Lisa developed on August 21 near Jamaica. Lisa narrowly avoided being absorbed by Hurricane Karl as it passed to the storm's south, however, Lisa continued to push NW into Cuba, causing minimal damage prior to emerging over the Gulf, where Lisa attained a peak intensity of 50 MPH prior to making landfall in New Orleans, where damage was mainly minimal, eventually going on to cause problems as an extratropical system over the eastern United States. The precursor to Tropical Depression Fourteen had effects on the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, mainly flooding attributed to heavy rainfall, in addition to scattered power outages and tree damage due to gusty winds. September & October September got off to an early start to an increasingly active season with the formation of Tropical Storm Matthew 'on September 4. Matthew developed in the Gulf of Mexico and continued to travel Northeast, eventually making landfall in Tampa, Florida on September 6 shortly after reaching peak intensity. Effects were mainly minimal. ' Hurricane Nicole was an intense Category 4 hurricane that formed to the east of the Bahamas and began pushing west, making numerous landfalls. Damage was mainly minimal in the Bahamas, where Nicole made landfall as a weak tropical storm, followed by a short burst of the strengthening while it made landfall in Florida as a Category 1. Nicole then emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, having not weakened, but continued to strengthen over the Gulf, eventually peaking at 150 MPH, 939 mbar, followed by a turn north, thus resulting in a direct landfall in Lousiana at Category 3 intensity, having become the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. as a major storm since Wilma in 2005, thus resulting in massive damage. Nicole resulted in $24.3 billion in damages, making it the 7th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind Andrew of 1992, which was lowered to 6th due to Hurricanes Karl and Hermine taking 3rd and 4th places, respectively. Tropical Storm Otto developed from an initially weak tropical wave that began tracking northeast, strengthening to a depression over the Cayman Islands, causing slight damage. Emerging over the Gulf, the system then took on an enormous size, entering a Fujiwhara with Hurricane Nicole but quickly removing itself from that, having lost a quarter of its circulation to Nicole. Otto them made landfall in Central Florida, absorbing the remnants of a weaker tropical system, causing heavy damage with high winds and torrential rainfall. Hurricane Paula, a low-end Category 1 hurricane, did not impact land while tropical. Paula developed over the Northern Atlantic and remained at sea for the majority of its life, however, Paula did impact the Azores as an extratropical system, making 2016 the first season in which three storms ever impacted the Azores during a single season. Paula's effects were overall considerable, with nearly $93 million in damages exacting from the storm. Paula was also the only storm of the season to impact Portugal, the first Atlantic storm to do so since Gordon of 2012. October started with the transition of Hurricane Paula into an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical Storm Richard '''later developed on October 6 far east of the Leeward Islands. The subtropical precursor to Richard persisted for several days as subtropical depression, followed by landfalls in Barbados and later the Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico, where heavy rainfall caused severe flooding, much like Erika did the previous season. Richard would attain subtropical storm status over the Dominican Republic before rapidly degenerating into a remnant trough. The remnants of Richard would go on to cause moderate damage in Florida, as well as directly impacting the Florida Keys. '''November & December On November 11', Tropical Storm Shary', a strong tropical storm, developed 75 miles due east of the Lesser Antilles in the Northern Atlantic. Shary never directly impacted land while tropical, thpugh causing flood damage as a tropical wave in Barbados, but staying to the north of Venezuela. Shary dissipated on November 17 after an indirect hit north of Aruba, having caused minimal damage and minor flooding there, attributed to heavy rain produced by Shary's outer bands. Shary later dissipated as an upper-level low that brought heavy rainfall to Belize on November 18. In early December, a late season Cape Verde tropical wave began to cross the Central Atlantic, battering heavy wind shear and cool waters, fluctuating between tropical storm and tropical depression status for several days. This storm, better known as Hurricane Tobias, was the final hurricane of the season and the most intense off-season tropical cyclone to date, having peaked as a 125 MPH Category 3 major hurricane. Tobias intensified in the favorable Caribbean Sea, becoming a Category 3 just west of the Florida Keys only a day before Christmas. Tobias made landfall in the Florida panhandle on Christmas Day (December 25) at Category 3 intensity, causing hundreds of thousands of electrical blackouts on that day. Because the storm "ruined Christmas" for many, it was nicknamed "Hurricane Grinch" and "Hurricane Scrooge", amongst many other things. Tobias became the 10th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, having caused $15.8 billion in damages, only behind Ivan of 2004. Hurricane Tobias dissipated into an extratropical storm on December 27, having put an end to a very active season. Storms Retirement: In Spring of 2017, the 39th session of the World Meteorological Organization retired five names from the above list: Fiona, Hermine, Karl, Nicole, and Tobias. These will be retired due to the extraneous damage and high amounts of fatalities as a result of their storm's nature. They will be replaced with Fern, Holly, Kenneth, Natalia, and ''Tyler ''for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, respectively. This was the highest amount of names retired in a single season, tying with the 2005 season, which also had five names retired at the conclusion of the season. - The List for 2022 - Season Effects Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes